Bubblings of a Trader

Undangan Syukuran

TraderMade — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 23:23:17 +0000

Dear friends of Balidev and Risenberg,

Untuk merayakan kerjasama yang selama ini telah terjalin dengan baik antara Risenberg & Balidev, yang telah menghasilkan pertumbuhan yang gemilang di awal tahun 2009 ini, dan untuk memanjatkan doa bersama bagi pertumbuhan yang terus konsisten di masa depan, Balidev & Risenberg mengadakan acara syukuran.

Acaranya hari ini, Sabtu 14 Maret 2009, jam 19.00 wita.
Tempat di Balidev Jl. P. Kawe Denpasar.

Acara: syukuran, tumpengan, makan2..
Menu: nasi tumpeng ayam, puding dari mbok sulis, free flow drink.

Regards,
Darma

About: Risenberg | Balidev

On Trend Lines

TraderMade — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 03:04:19 +0000

I’ve been thinking that the reason why a trend line exists is something related to the balance-bias of buyers and sellers of the particular instruments. When a certain amount of large orders placed into the market, they wont be executed at an exact price level, but they rather will absorb the counterpart orders and this will drive the market within some range.

The magnitude of the range and the degree of the slope would be correlated to the size of the transaction being poured into the market and market’s available liquidity in absorbing the orders.

I see an interesting phenomenon this morning on the GBP/USD; there are several trend lines those are having lower degree of slope each day. The one spotted at Jan 26 is >50 degs, and it’s less steep on the days after and it’s around 30 deg today. Off course these degree measurements are relative to the horizontal zoom of the chart (that’s why I don’t believe in Gann’s principles in giving meaning to trendline’s slopes), but the decreasing slope is so obvious.

Please click on the image below for a bigger view:

Rgrds,
Darma

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

TraderMade — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:19:10 +0000

It has been 3 weeks since my last post regarding the mini dow.
So she has touched her target line there last night.
Her legs look so nice, don’t they? :p lol.

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Events are Correlated with Volatility, Not Direction

TraderMade — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 20:36:10 +0000

During this credit crisis, we’ve been seeing a stronger USD against other major currencies.
When the bail out passed and signed into law by Bush, US stock market plunged to a new low instead of bouncing upward. lol.

The market is not traded by economic and finance professors, it is moved by the market’s greed and fear psychology. And market psychology is very-very unpredictable. Be it a positive or negative fundamental news, better or worse than expected economic numbers, or the already priced-in rumors, they all have NO correlation with market direction, they only create volatility. Direction will can never be predicted using fundamental parameters.

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Jakarta Great Sale: 50% Discount

TraderMade — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 02:12:23 +0000

IHSG has touched its 50% retracement level at 1580s.
It’s suppose to be a very strong support area.

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Out from US

TraderMade — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:00:18 +0000

After a year of a tough process, the CFTC and US’ court have successfully resolved the case with FXLQ, and rescued all of my money to GFT about a month ago. Then I had this dilemma whether i would continue trading them in the US or not. The options at that time was to repatriate them home and run some pattern-based strategy on Indonesian stocks. It had been weeks that I had this dilemma, but after seeing all these scandals in US’ financial system, I then decided to take them all out from there. So I signed and sent the fund request form, hoping to see my baby here within this week. I’m sorry uncle Sam, can’t trust you with my money for now.

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

TraderMade — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:40:51 +0000

While i was in a friend’s birthday party last night, she was expanding her leg beautifully:

though we still have a support at 10814 (prev low, july 15) but she could be well aiming to kick 9600s:

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AIG: Risk Management 101

TraderMade — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 22:57:10 +0000

So, it’s been a lesson of risk mismanagement:

“In years to come, the real story will not be the subprime crisis or some housing bubble,” says Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, “it will be the spectacular failure of risk-management systems in our so-called leading financial institutions.”How AIG got into this terrible spot draws, in some ways, on the lessons of classic risk mismanagement—what Schiff calls “Insurance 101.” The job of an underwriter is to spread risk around. If you write earthquake insurance, you don’t write it only in California as that could leave your entire business exposed to one terrible turn of events. AIG appeared to ignore that practice when making just such a dangerous bet on subprime mortages. At least until 2005, various divisions of the company were writing subprime mortgages, selling mortgage insurance for borrowers, writing derivatives on collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) with subprime exposure, and investing premium dollars in mortgage-backed securities as well.

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

TraderMade — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 07:30:53 +0000

and here’s the view as per today. its breaking lower its consolidation pattern we saw weeks ago, but still got this support line at 1140s:

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I’m All Cash

TraderMade — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:07:56 +0000

after getting out from bbca and bmri for a 6pct gain. .. I’m all cash now.

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