Undangan Syukuran

Dear friends of Balidev and Risenberg,

Untuk merayakan kerjasama yang selama ini telah terjalin dengan baik antara Risenberg & Balidev, yang telah menghasilkan pertumbuhan yang gemilang di awal tahun 2009 ini, dan untuk memanjatkan doa bersama bagi pertumbuhan yang terus konsisten di masa depan, Balidev & Risenberg mengadakan acara syukuran.

Acaranya hari ini, Sabtu 14 Maret 2009, jam 19.00 wita.
Tempat di Balidev Jl. P. Kawe Denpasar.

Acara: syukuran, tumpengan, makan2..
Menu: nasi tumpeng ayam, puding dari mbok sulis, free flow drink.

Regards,
Darma

About: Risenberg | Balidev

On Trend Lines

I’ve been thinking that the reason why a trend line exists is something related to the balance-bias of buyers and sellers of the particular instruments. When a certain amount of large orders placed into the market, they wont be executed at an exact price level, but they rather will absorb the counterpart orders and this will drive the market within some range.

The magnitude of the range and the degree of the slope would be correlated to the size of the transaction being poured into the market and market’s available liquidity in absorbing the orders.

I see an interesting phenomenon this morning on the GBP/USD; there are several trend lines those are having lower degree of slope each day. The one spotted at Jan 26 is >50 degs, and it’s less steep on the days after and it’s around 30 deg today. Off course these degree measurements are relative to the horizontal zoom of the chart (that’s why I don’t believe in Gann’s principles in giving meaning to trendline’s slopes), but the decreasing slope is so obvious.

Please click on the image below for a bigger view:

Rgrds,
Darma

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

It has been 3 weeks since my last post regarding the mini dow.
So she has touched her target line there last night.
Her legs look so nice, don’t they? :p lol.

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Events are Correlated with Volatility, Not Direction

During this credit crisis, we’ve been seeing a stronger USD against other major currencies.
When the bail out passed and signed into law by Bush, US stock market plunged to a new low instead of bouncing upward. lol.

The market is not traded by economic and finance professors, it is moved by the market’s greed and fear psychology. And market psychology is very-very unpredictable. Be it a positive or negative fundamental news, better or worse than expected economic numbers, or the already priced-in rumors, they all have NO correlation with market direction, they only create volatility. Direction will can never be predicted using fundamental parameters.

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Jakarta Great Sale: 50% Discount

IHSG has touched its 50% retracement level at 1580s.
It’s suppose to be a very strong support area.

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Out from US

After a year of a tough process, the CFTC and US’ court have successfully resolved the case with FXLQ, and rescued all of my money to GFT about a month ago. Then I had this dilemma whether i would continue trading them in the US or not. The options at that time was to repatriate them home and run some pattern-based strategy on Indonesian stocks. It had been weeks that I had this dilemma, but after seeing all these scandals in US’ financial system, I then decided to take them all out from there. So I signed and sent the fund request form, hoping to see my baby here within this week. I’m sorry uncle Sam, can’t trust you with my money for now.

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

While i was in a friend’s birthday party last night, she was expanding her leg beautifully:

.

though we still have a support at 10814 (prev low, july 15) but she could be well aiming to kick 9600s: 

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AIG: Risk Management 101

So, it’s been a lesson of risk mismanagement:

“In years to come, the real story will not be the subprime crisis or some housing bubble,” says Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, “it will be the spectacular failure of risk-management systems in our so-called leading financial institutions.”How AIG got into this terrible spot draws, in some ways, on the lessons of classic risk mismanagement—what Schiff calls “Insurance 101.” The job of an underwriter is to spread risk around. If you write earthquake insurance, you don’t write it only in California as that could leave your entire business exposed to one terrible turn of events. AIG appeared to ignore that practice when making just such a dangerous bet on subprime mortages. At least until 2005, various divisions of the company were writing subprime mortgages, selling mortgage insurance for borrowers, writing derivatives on collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) with subprime exposure, and investing premium dollars in mortgage-backed securities as well.

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Re: Watching the Mini Dow

and here’s the view as per today. its breaking lower its consolidation pattern we saw weeks ago, but still got this support line at 1140s: 

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I’m All Cash

after getting out from bbca and bmri for a 6pct gain. .. I’m all cash now.

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http://tradermade.wordpress.com

I’m Wishing Us All…

Dear all,
I’m wishing us all a happy Kuningan day.
May all the forces and the Great Universe opens clear paths to joy and happiness.

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Re: Watching The Mini Dow

A fellow added this blue line and pointed a rising wedge out of my prev drawings.
Even a falling wedge that’s been broken has to surrender to the parallel lines i called matrix.

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Watching the Mini Dow

Yes, it was closed with a green candle last night, but this mini Dow looks like having some potential to break lower from its consolidation pattern for another leg down.

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Market View, Aug 27

as 2100 is still holding its support, im spotting a bottom in the indonesian stock market now, thus start collecting some and plan to add more as the trend develops in the future. but its not a prediction, i prefer just to trend follow. so if the support break lower again, i’ll just dump ‘em and wait for another trend initiation signs.

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Divergence on ETF-LQ45

a reversal MACD divergence has been seen on ETF-LQ45, wud be a nice low-risk entry level and could be followed with a trend-following entries later after any breakout above resistances.

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Breakout Stocks

While the IHSG is @ 2150s now, some stocks those hv been breaking out from its consolidation patterns are: BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, PGAS, and LPKR.

Buying now with stop loss placed at previous low fractals.

rgrds, Darma

Great News from Robb Evans

This is what we have today. Yay.. !
Finally our clients will get all their money back.

ROBB EVANS & ASSOCIATES, LLC Receiver of Forex Liquidity LLC 11450 Sheldon Street Sun Valley, California 91352-1121 Telephone No.: 818 768-8100 Facsimile No.: 818 768-8802

August 4, 2008 NOTICE TO NON-FX ASIA CUSTOMERS This message is to inform you that Robb Evans and Associates LLC, the receiver of Forex Liquidity LCC, has entered into an agreement to transfer all the accounts, which are not part of the FX Asia accounts, to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (GFT). This transfer was approved by United States District Court, Central District of California. You will receive information regarding GFT on August 5, 2008 and additional information regarding your account at the time of the transfer on August 6th, 2008. Once the transfer is completed, everything regarding your account will be serviced by GFT, a financially stable FCM registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). In addition, GFT is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Supervisory Agency (FSA) in Japan, and the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the United Kingdom. Please note that GFT will be in contact with you about your trading account transfer, including accessing your funds, which will be available for either trading activities or withdrawal. Updates and information will be available from GFT via online at http://www.gftforex.com/trade as well as via a special toll-free hotline 1.888.694.0011; international customers call 616.956.6423. For additional information about the receivership in the CFTC v. Forex Liquidity LLC case or the Court approved orders, please refer to the receiver’s website at http://www.robbevans.com/html/forexlq.html. Thank you, Robb Evans & Associates LLC

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FXLQ New News Out

Another news’ been out today. A fellow (Nickname TripTrap) in the FF forum has just posted Lillian’s reply to his mails.

The Receiver just filed the 2nd report with the Court this week. Below please find the link to our report:

http://www.robbevans.com/pdf/forexlqreport02.pdf

We are filing the motion for the distributions with the Court in a very near future. Once the Court approves our motion, distribution can be made. The hearing date will most likely be scheduled on July 14th. As required by law, the hearing for the motion is required to be scheduled within a reasonable timeline from the time the motion is filed to allow all parties to have a chance to review/oppose to the motion. Therefore, if we file the report in mid-June, the earliest the Court can approve the motion would be somewhere around mid-July.

Very truly yours,

Lillian Lee
Deputy to the Receiver

And there’s also another additional answers from Lillian:

Lillian,

Thank you for the fast reply and all the news!

Do you think it is likely for those that have claims will oppose the motion to distribute funds delaying us even more? Also, how long in these cases does it generally take for the checks to be sent out to the customers once the court approves of the motion?

Sincerely,

———————————————————————————————————-,

I really do not know who will oppose to our motion or how the Court will decide at this point. The possible parties who may oppose to the motion would be FXLQ’s shareholders, mainly Mr. Gray, brokers and creditors (as they won’t receive 100% of their claims, at least not now). Let’s hope that it will not affect the Court’s approval for the distribution to customers.

Based on our other cases, typically the distribution can be made within few weeks (many times within a week) from the Court’s approval.

Regards,
Lillian Lee
Deputy to the Receiver

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Some Volatility Heaven (or Hell)

Compared to the FX market which i’ve been trading it for the past 6 years now, this HSI market is such a volatility heaven. Its 1min chart has a nice form that’s very suitable for technical trading, thus providing lots of opportunity for doing intraday scalp trades. But need to keep tight SLs because the volatility can also bring hell up to the surface. lol.

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HSI Today

Our baby channel for this morning:

and then dropped downward, sold it at market for a 80pts target.

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